Bold Prediction: Robinhood, $HOOD, Will Join the S&P This June
Update: As of 6/7/2025, the S&P committee declared that there will be no rebalancing for the S&P 500, 400, or 600, therefore nullifying this prediction.
The S&P 500 index has strict criteria for inclusion, designed to ensure that companies with a strong moat and sizable market capitalization are included. Companies must clear specific hurdles in market value, liquidity, and financial solvency to be considered for inclusion. The S&P committee requires a market capitalization above $20 billion, consistent trading volume of at least 250,000 shares monthly for the past six months, and a record of positive GAAP earnings in the most recent quarter as well as cumulatively over the last year. With this in mind, I am pleased to inform you that Robinhood meets every one of these benchmarks, and no company deserves S&P inclusion more than Robinhood.
First, Robinhood’s market capitalization has surged well beyond the minimum. Buoyed by outstanding financial results, the stock hit all time highs earlier this year, topping a $50 billion market cap. At around $64 per share as of writing this article, Robinhood’s valuation is more than 3x the S&P entry threshold, putting it comfortably in large-cap territory. Second, liquidity is no issue, as Robinhood’s shares trade in heavy volumes daily, far above the S&P’s minimum needs, reflecting robust investor interest.
Most crucially, Robinhood has achieved the sustained profitability that the S&P 500 demands. After years of operating losses following its IPO, 2024 marked Robinhood’s first full year of GAAP profits, a remarkable turnaround. The company delivered $1.56 in diluted EPS for 2024, versus a loss the year prior, proving that its business model can generate real earnings. That momentum only accelerated into 2025. In the latest reported quarter, Robinhood saw revenues soar 50% year-over-year to $927 million, and it earned a hefty $336 million in net income for the quarter. This was the company’s fourth consecutive profitable quarter, bringing its trailing four-quarter earnings well into the black.
Robinhood's Inclusion into Tom Lee’s GRNY ETF and Other ETFs
Another strong signal of Robinhood’s coming-of-age as an index-ready company is its growing presence in prominent ETFs and institutional portfolios. The most recent example is Robinhood’s inclusion into Tom Lee’s GRNY 0.00%↑ ETF (the Fundstrat “Granny Shots” ETF), which in May 2025 added Robinhood to its holdings. GRNY is an actively managed fund selecting high-conviction names across the market, and Robinhood now occupies about 2.7% of its portfolio. Robinhood sits alongside household-name blue chips in GRNY, a roster that includes the likes of Apple, Goldman Sachs, and Tesla. For a relatively young company, being picked for Tom Lee’s curated list of “Granny Shot” stocks, which is a reference to reliable long-term bets, is a vote of confidence from a known Wall Street strategist. It signals that Robinhood is no longer seen as a risky startup, but rather as a legitimate growth company worthy of inclusion among America’s corporate leaders.
Robinhood’s interest with institutional investors is further signified in ARK’s Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF 0.00%↑, managed by Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest. ARKF has been loading up on Robinhood for some time, and today Robinhood is one of the fund’s top holdings at roughly 7.8% of the portfolio, over $78 million worth of Robinhood stock, making it the ETF’s third-largest position, only behind Coinbase and Shopify. Having Robinhood as a big slot exemplifies the conviction that this company is transforming the financial services market. Other funds focusing on next-generation finance have followed suit in adding HOOD, reflecting a broadening acceptance. Even specialized products have emerged to let investors bet on Robinhood’s success, such as Defiance ETFs’ HOOX 0.00%↑, a 2x leveraged single-stock ETF designed to provide increased exposure to Robinhood’s stock. The existence of a leveraged Robinhood-focused ETF indicates that Robinhood has reached a certain level of market maturity and demand.
This trend of fund inclusion supports Robinhood for S&P 500 candidacy. When multiple ETFs and asset managers are incorporating a stock into their strategies, it shows that the stock has achieved broad investor relevance. Robinhood is increasingly viewed as a core holding in fintech and growth portfolios, not a niche speculative play. Its rising institutional ownership and presence in respected funds add legitimacy. In the eyes of the S&P committee, such acceptance by the investment community can only help Robinhood’s case.
Robinhood’s Relentless Pursuit to Snatch Market Share and Its Appeal to Gen Z
Fundamentally, what underpins Robinhood’s rise is its relentless expansion of products and services. Their strategy, aimed at capturing market share from every corner of the financial world, especially among younger consumers, is working and supported by financials. The company’s mission has evolved far beyond commission-free stock trades. Robinhood now aspires to be the go-to financial superapp for the new generation, and it has been aggressively rolling out offerings to make that a reality. In the past year, Robinhood introduced retirement accounts, complete with a 1% contribution match to entice IRA rollovers, unveiled a self-custody crypto wallet, expanded fully into international markets, and launched its credit card for users. Each initiative broadens Robinhood’s reach into domains traditionally dominated by legacy institutions, and Robinhood isn’t shy about using unique, attractive features to pull in users. Robinhood’s IRA offering, which includes that 1% “Robinhood match” on contributions, drove retirement assets under custody to $14.4 billion in Q1 2025, up over 200% YOY. In crypto, Robinhood has long enabled commission-free trading of popular coins, and it went further by launching a dedicated wallet app and has agreed to acquire Bitstamp Ltd., a globally scaled crypto exchange, to deepen its crypto capabilities and global presence. It also recently acquired WonderFi, potentially signaling an entrance into the Canadian market read more:
Robinhood Acquires WonderFi in an All-Cash Deal
Robinhood announced that it will acquire WonderFi Technologies, a Canadian crypto-services firm, in an all-cash d…
And to capture users’ everyday spending, the company rolled out the Robinhood Gold Card, offering 3% cash back on most purchases, available to its Gold subscription members.
All these moves share a common goal, which is to keep existing customers engaged in the Robinhood ecosystem and to attract new customers from competitors by offering a more compelling one-stop solution. If a young investor can use Robinhood for trading stocks and options, park their cash for a solid yield, buy crypto, save for retirement, and even do their everyday spending on a cashback card, why would they need to go anywhere else? This strategy has translated into concrete growth. By the first quarter of 2025, Robinhood reported 25.8 million funded customer accounts on its platform. Moreover, engagement is deepening: the number of Robinhood Gold subscribers, up to 3.2 million, and the company saw a record $18 billion in net deposits in Q1 alone as clients moved more of their money into Robinhood.
Robinhood’s aggressive market share grabs and its popularity among younger investors together paint the picture of a company on a trajectory toward the big leagues. It is no longer an experiment or a niche disruptor, it’s a profitable, mainstream financial player that is shaping the future of investing for a new generation. This evolution is precisely why inclusion in the S&P 500 is highly likely on the horizon, possibly by this June. Robinhood qualifies on all counts, where it has the numbers, it has the narrative, and it has the investor following. With its checklist complete, Robinhood stands as a prime candidate for the S&P 500’s next round of additions. Don’t be surprised if, when the S&P committee meets this June, Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a name at the top of their list. The probability of Robinhood’s S&P inclusion this June is extremely high in my view, and this milestone would only further cement Robinhood’s status as a leader in the finance world.
DISCLAIMER: I have long positions in HOOD 0.00%↑
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By Sean.